Monday 11 February 2013

Take a picture, quick!

So last Friday was the penultimate round of the District Teams of Four. You may recall that in the last round I more or less wrote off our chances of winning the trophy. After the events of Round 4 I am obliged not to do so. Why? Because we have suddenly found ourselves in first place - just when we weren't expecting it.

Lessurl and I started the night with a match against USHER. The Captain himself was not playing; he rotates a team of six for this event. We had the other two pairs to contend with. 009domino had never conceded defeat in this event, and was adamant we still had a title shot. But to keep that hope alive we knew what was needed against a team that was currently sitting 8th. As ever, there was a difference between knowing what is needed, and being able to do it.
The first three boards were snore bores - a 3NT+2 against us, a 2NT+1 against us and then a 1H+2 by Lessurl, during which I dashed away to collect the table money. As if trying to win at bridge wasn't a big enough ask, I was also running this event.
Next up was a 2 Spades by me, in which both I and Lessurl had 4-3-3-3 distributions, so there was nowhere to get rid of my six losers and I went one down. This was followed by another cold 11 tricks against us in No-Trump for -660.
So, we get to board 6 and the auction qualifies for the most interesting thing to happen thus far. I hold:

Kx
AKQJxx
Axx
Hxx

I open this 2 Clubs. LHO overcalls 2 Spades. Lessurl passes, showing no aces, so I bid 3 Hearts. This was a bad bid - I should have bid 4, and play there. Because I don't, we end up in 5 Hearts as I try to investigate a remote slam. The Ace of Spades lead helps greatly, and I canter to eleven tricks. Even though this was a non-vulnerable Game, I really don't think we could've penalised 2 Spades for a better score, though it is always a tempting thought.
  +690 on the next board was more likely to yield 3 IMPs than a Slam Swing out, and -170 on the next board looked like a small chance of a swing if our team-mates had a route to the thin Game. I played a 4 Heart contract that rolled in, watched as a 5 Diamond contract rolled to 12 tricks against us on the penultimate board, and then this board to finish:

xx
K10x
xxx
QJ7xx

AKxx
AJxxx
Qx
Kx

Contract: 4 Hearts by the bottom hand, King of Diamonds led.
I am Dealer at Game All, with the bottom hand. I open 1 Heart. LHO doubles.
Lessurl now bids 2 Clubs, which I alert as it shows 6-9 points with 3 card heart support and probably something in clubs (almost certainly in this case). With a reversing strength hand I bid 2 Spades, even though I know there is no fit there - it is just the best way to show my strength. Lessurl bids 3 Hearts, which suggests he is bottom of the range, but I take a view and bid 4, mainly on basis of feeling we need a swing to stay in the competition and also that I know where a lot of the points are.

LHO takes the first two tricks with the King then Ace of Diamonds. A third round of diamonds is ruffed in hand with RHO showing the Jack.
This is a tricky situation. There is a threat of losing trump control - especially if they break 4-1. I probably won't get the time to ruff 2 spades in dummy, so clubs need to be set up. And the key question is where is the Queen of Hearts? I don't know the answer to that one, but in the mean time, I may as well play LHO for the Ace of Clubs and get a count of the hand - he surely doesn't have Axxxx. As it happens, the King holds a round, and when I play a small up to dummy, the Ace appears, followed by another club. A good attempt from LHO - he knows not to give me a ruff and discard and can't risk giving me the distribution by playing on spades. He has held up a round in the hope of getting partner a ruff, but at the expense of beating an honour with the Ace. This means I have no dilemma on the third round, and as it happens, the Jack holds, and I can pitch 1 Spade. That brings me to this position:

xx
K10x
---
Q7

AKx
AJxx
---
---

The location of the Queen of Hearts is a genuine guess. I don't have everything I need to be sure, but I must get it right as I need to play trumps for no losers and rid myself of a spade loser along the way. There are two options. Option A is play for Qxx on my left: small heart to the ace, small heart towards the K10, stuffing LHO, and drawing trumps in 3 rounds before pitching a spade on a club. Option B is to play for Qx(x) on my right: King of hearts and a small heart from dummy to trap RHO, before cashing two rounds of spades and ruffing a third and requiring the remaining heart to be on my right.
Option A seems to be the intuitive line: it picks up more heart distributions and places the Queen with the hand that doubled. I didn't pick this. LHO has shown 11 points already and is unlikely to have both major queens. He has played three diamonds and had an original holding of three clubs. Since his double implies length in spades, I am placing him with 4 of these, leaving room for three more red cards. Given his partner played the Jack of Diamonds, I think it more likely that he has another diamond, meaning that his partner rates to have longer hearts than him. It is the Theory of Available Spaces in action. In other words, if I correctly place Queen of Hearts on my right, I will be given the "luck" of RHO having three. So all that remains is to place that sodding queen. I place it on my right. Of the two major queens, I think LHO more likely to hold the Spade, since that is likely his suit and I held Ace-King. So I take Option B. This works, and the contract makes.
  I could cross my fingers this would grant us a swing, but overall, the match looked too mundane for a score. Wrong. Only three flat boards as our team-mates did not have a boring set at all. On the first, 009domino also played in 3NT but took the lot. Unfortunately, they passed out the next board and we were losing 2-4. Lessurl's 9th trick gained us an IMP on the third, and my -50 gained another 2 as our counterparts had played in 3 Spades. Then came the first board that was actually flat. Still only 5-4 at this stage.
  My 5 Hearts making was the first swing - our counterparts were also in 5 Hearts and coming 2 off. -2 and +3 followed before 2 flat boards saw us edging the match 19-6 with two to score up. Our team-mates were the heroes on the next board, finding the thin but making 6 Hearts to gain us 11 more IMPs. The above 4 Hearts gained us a further 10, and that was enough to see us fall 1 IMP short of the maximum win, settling for 19-1.

Before we scored that match we had a match to play against McGUIRE. This was a team that beat us heavily last year, or at least part thereof, as it is actually a merger of two teams. Having lost one match already, we couldn't afford a repeat result. Fortunately, it seemed to us the only potential big swings were going to be in our favour.
  After a "flat" first board in which we lost an IMP, Lessurl and I had these hands:

J10xx
AQJx
KQx
xx

AKxxx
xxx
A
AQJ10

As Dealer with the bottom hand, I open 1 Spade. Lessurl responds a Jacoby 2NT. I bid a positive 3 Spades, explained at the end of the auction as such and denying a singleton or void. I am denying my diamond singleton - I don't show a singleton Ace as such. Lessurl bids 4 Spades, which tells me he was only interested in Game when he bid 2NT. I put on my rose tinted specs and bid 4NT. However, I cannot justify a slam when the auction continues 5C (one Key Card) - 5D (QS?) - 5H (No) - 5S (I give up) So Five Spades is the contract.

How to play this on a heart lead? There are two options. Finesse and hope that either this makes, or that I only have 1 loser in the black suits if it fails. Or, I could rise with the Ace and play the spades for no losers (before or after unblocking diamonds depending on how I want to play spades) and get back to dummy with a spade to discard hearts. Hmm.
Lucky I don't have this dilemma - I get a diamond lead. I win, cash AK of spades, failing to drop the queen, then cash the Ace of hearts and pitch two hearts on the KQ of diamonds. The club finesse fails, so 11 tricks is spot on.
I would not want to be in 6 Spades here, which is exactly what our counterparts were in (also with a diamond lead). The line for attempting to make 6 is the same as for 5, so we gained 13 IMPs here. It is a fine line though - Declarer can make 13 tricks if he can see where all the cards are at Trick 1.

On the next board, my RHO passed a reverse bid. It was a judgement call that backfired when her partner was maximum. So, three boards in we had built up a comfortable 19-1 IMPs lead. By 10 boards, we had increased this to 31-1. This consisted of a gift of an extra trick, a part score battle that we won, and our opponents bidding a Game that didn't make. Unfortunately, we shipped 8 IMPs on the penultimate board to win the match 17-3. Still, 36 was a very good nights' work; the best score we've ever had in one two-match round of the District Teams of Four.

We didn't think it would be enough to put us on top, however. But MOWAT beat ROSS, so the current top 4 looks like this:

1. A. McLeod 122
2. Ross 120
3. Hay 115
4. Mowat 95

This is where the seeding system does its stuff. These were the top 4 seeds (though not in that order). We, as well as HAY (the top 2 seeds) have to play two of the top four seeds on the final night. We have the worst of it I think as we face HAY and ROSS. At least it could be argued that destiny is in our own hands, but I can't place us as favourites given our run-in. In my opinion, ROSS is in the better situation, only 2 VPs off the lead, with the leaders to play plus another match against a lower seed (6th). HAY is still very much in the mix and has a good chance of retaining the title. They also have the advantage of having "got the T-shirt" in terms of having won the event, being winners since - well, longer than I know. MOWAT complete the top 4 and the list of teams that still has a mathematical chance of winning. But they will need to win big (including in a match against HAY) and get other results in their favour. I'm not saying it can't or won't be done; only that a bookmaker should offer reasonable odds on a team outside of the current top 3 winning the event this season.

All in all, everything is in place for a great final night. I don't remember the contest ever being this close at this stage - usually it is a two horse race or less. I know which horse I want to win, but I'll be happy as long as we don't fall at the final hurdle.

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